German Experts Assess Gulf Trade in Dubai
Dubai, UAE – At a recent meeting of the German Expat Club in Dubai, business leaders and logistics specialists gathered to discuss the economic implications of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The panel featured Jan Niclas Strickling, Tobias Maier, Jan Husing, Dr. Ricco Deutscher and Markus Mensch, who analysed how potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could affect global trade flows and supply chains in the Gulf region.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz as a Global Trade Artery
For companies operating in the region, the issue is not abstract. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important maritime corridors. A significant share of the Gulf’s container traffic moves through this narrow passage each year, linking the region’s ports with Europe, Asia and Africa.
Tobias Maier, representing DHL, highlighted the scale of the trade involved:
“Ports inside the Strait of Hormuz handled around 25 million TEUs last year. That is roughly 15 million physical containers entering the region.”
These volumes underline why any disruption in the area quickly becomes a global concern. Even limited uncertainty can ripple through shipping schedules, insurance markets and freight pricing.
Insurance Risks Begin to Shape Shipping Decisions
Insurance currently represents one of the most immediate pressure points. According to participants, insurers are reassessing risks associated with vessels entering the Gulf. For shipping companies, that assessment has direct operational consequences. Tobias Maier:
“As of midnight, ships heading into the Gulf are no longer insurable. If you cannot insure a vessel, shipping lines simply will not send it.”
Such developments do not necessarily halt trade entirely. However, they tend to raise costs and complicate logistics. Shipping lines must factor additional risk premiums into their calculations, while companies importing goods into the region may face sudden surcharges.
Rising Costs for Global Supply Chains
One example discussed during the panel concerned the rapid introduction of war-risk fees. Tobais Maier explained:
“Shipping lines immediately introduced war risk charges. Even if your container just left Hamburg, you may suddenly have to pay two or three thousand dollars extra.”
For businesses across the Gulf, these additional costs arrive at a time when global logistics networks are already under pressure. Freight rates had stabilised after the disruptions of the pandemic years, but geopolitical uncertainty is again introducing volatility.
Limited Alternatives for Gulf Trade Routes
Panel participants also discussed possible alternatives should disruptions intensify. Some cargo could be redirected to ports outside the Gulf, including facilities along the Red Sea or in Oman. Yet such routes have limited capacity and cannot fully replace the volume currently moving through Hormuz.
For companies operating in the UAE and neighbouring markets, the discussion underscored a broader lesson. In an interconnected trading system, geopolitical developments can rapidly translate into operational challenges — from shipping insurance to the price of a single container.
While the situation remains fluid, the panel agreed on one point: the resilience of supply chains will depend on flexibility, diversified routes and a realistic assessment of regional risks.
